Shifting Alliances: Gulf States Reassess Ties with Israel Amid Escalating Israel-Iran Conflict
As the Israel-Iran conflict intensifies, Gulf states are reevaluating their relations with Israel. Explore how shifting alliances are reshaping the Middle East’s geopolitical landscape.
A Turning Point for Gulf-Israel Relations
The geopolitical landscape of the Middle East is undergoing a seismic shift. What was once seen as a blossoming relationship between Israel and several Arab nations, particularly in the Gulf, is now facing unprecedented challenges. As tensions escalate between Israel and Iran, these Gulf states, which had slowly warmed to Israel in recent years, are reassessing their alliances. With military strikes and diplomatic maneuvering, the region finds itself on the brink of significant change.
In this blog post, we’ll explore how the ongoing conflict between Israel and Iran is impacting the dynamics in the Gulf, the shifting alliances, and what this could mean for the future of Middle Eastern diplomacy.
The Emergence of Ties Between Israel and Gulf Nations
A Brief History of Relations
Over the past few years, several Gulf states, particularly the UAE, Bahrain, and Saudi Arabia, had gradually moved toward normalizing relations with Israel. The strategic shift was primarily driven by shared concerns over Iran’s growing influence and its nuclear ambitions. The UAE, in particular, emerged as a key player in this budding relationship, symbolized by the 2020 Abraham Accords, which normalized diplomatic relations between Israel and the UAE.
These agreements brought forth a wave of cooperation in areas like trade, technology, and defense, positioning Israel as a potential ally for the Gulf monarchies in their efforts to counterbalance Iran’s regional power.
The Role of the Iran Threat
The notion that Israel and the Gulf nations had a shared adversary—Iran—was central to this rapprochement. Iran’s nuclear program, its regional interventions, and its support for militant groups across the Middle East posed a significant challenge to Gulf security. For many in the Gulf, Israel was seen as a valuable partner in containing Iran’s influence.
The Escalating Israel-Iran Conflict
The Spark: Israel’s Strikes on Iranian Nuclear Sites
The situation took a dramatic turn when Israel launched airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities in June 2025, marking the beginning of the most intense conflict between the two countries in decades. Israeli officials claimed these strikes were necessary to prevent Iran from developing nuclear weapons, which they viewed as an existential threat.
While the Israeli government asserted that it was acting in self-defense, the strike sent shockwaves through the region, particularly among those Gulf states that had embraced ties with Israel as a counterbalance to Iran.
Iranian Retaliation
In response, Iran launched missile attacks on Israeli targets, killing at least 24 people. These strikes were deflected by Israel’s missile defense systems, but the exchange underscored the gravity of the situation. The violence has heightened fears of a broader regional conflict, drawing in neighboring Arab states and global powers alike.
Gulf States Reassess Their Alliances
A Shift in Perspective: From Cooperation to Caution
As the conflict unfolded, Gulf leaders, who had once welcomed deeper relations with Israel, began to reconsider their positions. Despite their longstanding distrust of Iran, many Gulf officials expressed growing concerns about Israel’s military actions. In particular, they feared that Israel’s lack of restraint could destabilize the region further.
For instance, the UAE’s response to the Israeli airstrikes was a significant shift. The Emirati government, which had previously seen Israel as a strategic partner, waived all visa overstay fees for stranded Iranians and expressed solidarity with the Iranian people during these difficult times.
Saudi Arabia’s Contradictory Stance
Saudi Arabia, a key player in the Gulf, found itself in a complex position. On the one hand, it has long viewed Iran as a regional rival and had worked toward a more conciliatory approach with Israel. However, the Saudi government issued a public condemnation of Israel’s aggression toward Iran, signaling a shift in its regional diplomacy.
Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, who had previously emphasized Saudi Arabia’s commitment to regional peace, now faces the delicate task of balancing relations with both Israel and Iran. Saudi Arabia’s condemnation of Israel marked a significant departure from its previous stance, showing the uncertainty many Gulf states are grappling with in the face of escalating violence.
The Broader Gulf Reaction
In other Gulf states, such as Oman and Bahrain, the situation is no less complicated. Oman, which has traditionally played a mediating role in Middle Eastern diplomacy, had been involved in efforts to limit Iran’s nuclear development. The recent Israeli airstrikes threaten to undo years of diplomatic progress, with both Oman and Bahrain expressing concerns over the instability brought by the Israeli actions.
The Global Impact and Potential Consequences
The Role of the United States
The United States has long been an ally of Israel, and President Trump’s administration has supported Israel’s military actions. However, as the conflict continues to escalate, some Gulf leaders have called on the U.S. to exercise its influence to restrain Israel. This tension highlights the uneasy relationship between Gulf states and the U.S., as many Gulf leaders are now questioning whether their alliance with Washington is worth the instability brought on by Israel’s actions.
Economic Implications for the Gulf
The ongoing conflict is not just a political and military concern but also an economic one. The Gulf states, particularly the UAE and Saudi Arabia, have invested heavily in technology, aviation, and defense industries. The war could disrupt these industries, especially if Iranian retaliation causes further instability in the region. Increased insurance premiums, rising transportation costs, and the potential disruption of trade routes are already being felt.
A Region at a Crossroads
The escalation of the Israel-Iran conflict has forced Gulf nations to reconsider their previously strong ties with Israel. While the shared threat of Iran once united these states with Israel, the recent military actions have reignited tensions in the region. For now, Gulf leaders are adopting a cautious approach, trying to balance their strategic interests with the need for stability in the region.
The question remains: Can these countries continue to embrace Israel as an ally while dealing with the fallout of its aggressive actions? Only time will tell how these shifting alliances will impact the future of Middle Eastern diplomacy.
What do you think the future holds for Gulf-Israel relations? Share your thoughts in the comments below or explore more on Middle Eastern geopolitics by reading our other blog posts.
